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2022/05/01(日) 20:28:54.714ID:FZPnCRbD0①agreement ②hypothesis ③indication ④paradox
There are seemingly correct logical mistakes in the world, which are sometimes a problem in the field of statistics.
Consider comparing the therapeutic effects of two drugs, A and B.
For example, A was found to cure a disease with a probability of 9 in 10 males and 30 in 100 females. On the other hand, B was cured with 60/100 males and 1/10 females.
In both cases, it can be said that A is superior to B when compared to men and women respectively.
However, when considering a mixture of men and women, the therapeutic effect of A is 39/110 and that of B is 61/110. It leads to the opposite conclusion that B was superior to A.
This misterious phenomenon is called Simpson's ( ).
